{"ops":[{"attributes":{"bold":true},"insert":"The Analysis of Reasoning – Going Deeper: Assumptions"},{"attributes":{"align":"center"},"insert":"\n"},{"insert":"\nThe podcast on Assumptions takes the listener through assumptions as a concept and how they frequently underpin the inferences we make. Some of the key points that emerge include the following:\n\nAssumptions are beliefs that are taken for granted"},{"attributes":{"list":"bullet"},"insert":"\n"},{"insert":"Assumptions can be conscious or unconscious"},{"attributes":{"list":"bullet"},"insert":"\n"},{"insert":"Assumptions can be good (reasonable) or bad (unfounded)"},{"attributes":{"list":"bullet"},"insert":"\n"},{"insert":"Inferences are conclusions and are often underpinned by assumptions"},{"attributes":{"list":"bullet"},"insert":"\n"},{"insert":"Assumptions involve generalizations (e.g. prejudice) "},{"attributes":{"list":"bullet"},"insert":"\n"},{"insert":"\nBeing reminded of our ubiquitous use of assumptions should make us more alert to our own assumptions which, once recognized, can be examined for their accuracy. For example, what is the evidence for the truth of my assumption? Should it be qualified? Are there exceptions? How can my assumption be tested? While some assumptions may be reasonable, on reflection following this podcast I believe we would be more accurate and precise if we qualified our assumptions e.g. “as far as I know or understand”. This seems to also relate to the arguably safer use of “inductive” reasoning e.g. “I think….”, “It may be…” as opposed to “deductive” which is a statement of fact based on the premises it is based on even though the premises may someday be shown to be inaccurate or untrue. The literature on common cognitive biases has identified 30+ different variations of bias, each with their own name. For example, in healthcare “ascertainment bias” is the name given to “thinking shaped by prior assumptions and preconceptions, as occurs when patients are stereotyped. Rather than assigning distinct labels for each variation of bias, these would arguably be better situated in the context of the Elements of Thinking, in this case Assumptions.\n  \n"}]}